THE BAY AREA COULD LOSE BILLIONS of dollars in economic output and tax revenue if mass deportations of the region’s undocumented population were carried out, according to a report released Wednesday.
The Bay Area Council Economic Institute, a think tank that conducts research on economic issues in the region, led the study, which weighed the projected fiscal outcomes of deporting the Bay Area’s entire undocumented population.
The Bay Area is home to an estimated 478,000 undocumented immigrants, whose contributions to the economy are “essential” to its functioning, the report reads.
Without the undocumented population, annual economic output could be reduced by as much as $67 billion. Another $8.4 billion in annual tax revenue could also be lost, according to the report.
Mass deportation would not simply shift jobs to other workers, it would shrink the region’s productive capacity, disrupt supply chains, and slow economic growth.
Abby Raisz, Bay Area Council Economic Institute
“Our analysis shows that undocumented immigrants are deeply embedded in the Bay Area economy,” said report author Abby Raisz, Vice President of Research for the institute, in a statement. “Mass deportation would not simply shift jobs to other workers, it would shrink the region’s productive capacity, disrupt supply chains, and slow economic growth.”
Undocumented workers fill jobs in critical industries, making up substantial portions of sectors like construction, administrative support, hospitality, waste management, transportation, food services, and retail.
Losing these workers, the report says, would reduce economic output by slowing down production and driving up operation costs. Additionally, lower spending by undocumented migrants on goods and services would reduce overall tax revenues at the state and local levels.
“The data tell us that mass immigration enforcement would tear holes in our workforce, our tax base, and our neighborhoods — but it doesn’t have to be that way,” said Fred Blackwell, CEO of the San Francisco Foundation, in a statement. The foundation is a philanthropy organization which focuses on raising grants for nonprofits that support advancing racial equity and economic inclusion.
Since President Donald Trump took office over a year ago, deportations in the Bay Area and across the country have ramped up. While large-scale raids with immigration authorities have not yet hit the Bay Area, the fears of deportation have already caused reductions in workforce participation in key sectors with high rates of workers who are undocumented, according to the report.
“Workers miss shifts out of fear, customers stay home, and businesses are forced to cut hours or delay plans,” the report reads.
Through sanctuary policies and continued coordination with legal institutions and businesses to protect undocumented migrants, local Bay Area jurisdictions can help manage disruptions to the economic vitality of the region, according to the report.
“Together, we can support policies that keep families together, fund community organizations that meet crises in real time, and stand firm against enforcement practices that destabilize our neighborhoods and economy,” Blackwell said.
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