Bay Area firefighters are preparing for a difficult fire season this summer.
The latest seasonal outlook report from the National Interagency Fire Center Predictive Services released Thursday predicts an early fire season, with significant fire potential for June, July, and August, further complicating difficulties created by federal budget cuts.
Brett Lutz, fire meteorologist for the Northern California Geographic Area Coordination Center, said the seasonal outlook combines two factors: predicted warmer-than-normal temperatures and fuel characteristics. The latter includes fuel loading, or the amount of grass, brush, and trees on the land, and the moisture contained in those live and dead fuels.
While consistent rain and snow over the past few years have lifted much of Northern California out of drought conditions, they have also supported high growth rates for fuels like grass and brush. When these fuels dry out, they become an important factor in large fire growth.
“You’re likely to see some fuel curing in the herbaceous fuels, the grass and to some degree brush as well,” Lutz said.
Especially in inland areas, this curing is happening earlier than usual, which signifies an early start to fire season.
Windy conditions and ‘flash droughts’
The seasonal outlook report also noted a heightened risk of “flash drought,” which occurs when there are intense heat waves capable of drying out fuels to dangerous levels over a short period of time. As an example, Lutz pointed to the record-breaking heat wave in early July of last year, which created conditions that allowed the Park Fire to expand to the fourth-largest in California history, burning through nearly 430,000 acres in Butte and Tehama counties in 2024.
Wind, though harder to predict months in advance, plays a considerable role in the spread of wildfires, as seen recently with the disastrous wildfires in the Los Angeles area. According to Lutz, July and August face a higher likelihood of northerly dry wind events, which, when coupled with dry fuels, create red flag conditions.
Outside of these key months, May is predicted to remain sporadic in its weather, with cool and moist periods mixed with warming and drying periods. The warming and drying trend should become strong in the summer in the inland Bay Area, Lutz said.
However, the Bay Area is home to many microclimates, the primary difference being the influence of the ocean marine layer on these fuels, according to Deputy Chief James Allen with the San Mateo-Santa Cruz Unit of Cal Fire.
Chelsea Burkett, a Cal Fire fire prevention specialist, said that the agency’s Santa Clara Unit, which covers Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Clara, and western San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties, normally sees higher fire activity early in the year due to the fuel being predominantly grass, which dries out more quickly than the coastal brush and timber.
In addition to these predictions, cuts at the federal level affecting the U.S. Forest Service and National Park Service will play a significant role in how fires are fought. Federal agencies like these employ the majority of wildland firefighters across the nation, including thousands in California.
In the past few months, many employees were laid off or took buyouts. Though the cuts have largely affected non-firefighting employees, many red-carded employees — qualified firefighters who are able to leave their day jobs to assist firefighting efforts — have been affected. This can hamper fire response, especially during large fire years, when firefighting resources are already stretched thin.
“There’s an impact,” said Allen, “maybe less than other parts of the state, but we all feel it because our brothers and sisters on the federal side are every bit as important as our folks here.”
Bay Area fire departments in decent shape
However, Allen emphasized that Cal Fire and all the local Bay Area fire departments are fully staffed and prepared for the coming fire season. The Bay Area is less reliant on federal firefighters than many other parts of the state due to well-staffed local fire departments and Cal Fire.
“Cal Fire and all our cooperators are going to be fully staffed,” said Allen. “Everyone’s just finishing up their pre-fire season readiness drills the past weeks and coming weeks. And so the local constituents can expect the full robust response that they’ve been accustomed to.”
Burkett emphasized the role the Bay Area community can play in preparing for a wildfire. Even with a strong response from local firefighters, she said, it is important for residents to stay informed and be prepared this summer, especially considering the higher-than-normal possibility for a large wildfire season.
“One of the best things that you can do is sign up for alerting systems within your different counties and cities and to make sure you have go-bags prepared and that you’re paying attention to the changes in weather or the different incidents that are going on,” said Burkett.
More information on how to prepare a home for fire danger can be found at readyforwildfire.org. The Cal Fire website has information about active incidents and evacuations throughout the state.
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