YOU’VE LIKELY HEARD the oft-repeated idea that half the five-year-olds of 2025 will live to be 100.
For perspective, it means every other kindergartner you see this year will live until 2120.
That’s a bit scary. Like our kids and grandkids may finally have flying cars scary.
More older people means more older power. It also means re-engineering a society that traditionally doesn’t spend a lot of policy time on older people.
We’ll have to. We’re about to see a massive older population needing affordable housing, cheaper healthcare, solvent Social Security and Medicare, more care workers, accessible public transportation, job retraining, and more jobs for more healthy people who want to keep working.
The work needs to start soon.
People need to be aware of what’s coming. Which is the point of this column and more stories we’re doing about the needs and impacts of a rapidly expanding population of older adults.
Policymakers and the media need to start talking solutions before we wake up and realize we forgot to prepare for what could be a remarkable new era for older Americans — if they get the attention they’ve earned.
This is happening for three main reasons: accelerated mid-20th century birth rates, tremendous medical advances, and a relatively new longevity movement saying aging can be a positive experience if done correctly.
Baby Boomers and Gen X blew up the baby population in the U.S. decades ago. Together with medical advances and tons of longevity research, the population of older Americans is expanding like a “Happy 91st Birthday” balloon left on the helium tank too long.
Welcome to an aging planet
At the risk of turning this into a math class, some things to consider:
In 2019, about one in every 11 people on Earth was 65 or older. By 2050, that number will nearly double, rising to one in six, according to the United Nations.
The World Health Organization has said the number of people 60 or older will more than double from 2015 to 2050, from 900 million to 2 billion.
U.S. Census Bureau projections said there were 49.2 million people 65 and older in the U.S. in 2016. By 2060, that number nearly doubles to about 94.7 million.
Census projections say the number of Americans 100 and older will quadruple the next three decades, from an estimated 101,000 in 2024 to about 422,000 in 2054.
More power to the (older) people! Now let’s get to work. Big questions loom:
In the middle of a housing crisis now, where and how will we house the rapidly expanding older demographic?
One thing that could hasten necessary policy movement would be that older Americans, who love to vote like Donald Trump loves to golf, will become even more powerful at the polls. They’re the demographic that votes most, and there’s always strength in numbers.
How can we make health care more affordable for these folks soon to be on fixed incomes? How will we keep Social Security in the black after 2035 (when AARP emphasizes to anyone listening, it’s projected to go into deficit spending but not running out).
What about more jobs and retraining folks for the new careers older, longer-living, healthy people will want?
One thing that could hasten all that necessary policy movement would be that older Americans, who love to vote like Donald Trump loves to golf, will become even more powerful at the polls. They’re the demographic that votes most, and there’s always strength in numbers.
Can we realistically get people to start considering what will certainly be a big political and cultural shift? Can we pay for it? Can we realistically connect younger people to all that wisdom? It’s something this column will tackle. It’s important to tell the stories of older people, be it for inspiration or awareness or just a few laughs.
We’re already seeing the change happen in record numbers of people living into triple digits. In the last three decades, the U.S. centenarian population has nearly tripled. It was already increasing, as the 1990 census counted around 37,000 centenarians in the U.S., according to the Pew Research Center. That was up from 2,300 in 1950.
Old folks rule — at the ballot box
The world is now home to an estimated 722,000 centenarians, according to the United Nations’ population projections for 2024. By 2054, the global centenarian population is projected to grow to nearly 4 million.
That’s also a lot more voters in a demographic already flexing its Election Day muscles.
The Census Bureau said in the 2020 general election, 57% of people 18-34 voted, up from 49% in 2016. Of people 35-64, turnout was 69%, compared to 65% in 2016.
But in the 65 and older group, 74% voted in 2020, compared to 71% in 2016.
That’s a group that wants to get things done. And it’s growing faster than any other demographic, according to the Census Bureau.
Don’t think politicians aren’t beginning to get the hint. We just said goodbye to our oldest president ever, 82-year-old Joe Biden, replaced by Donald Trump, who turns 79 on June 14.
Biden gave older Americans more power, capping out-of-pocket expenses on prescription drugs, capping monthly insulin at $35 for Medicare recipients, reducing health care premiums, and slightly reducing Medicare premiums while Social Security payments went up. He also bumped up tax credits and limits of retirement contributions.
Someone understood the growing power of seniors. Maybe it takes one to know one. We’re all about to meet plenty more.
What does a longer lifespan mean to you? Two talented columnists tag-team every Friday to tackle the challenges that inform your choices — whether you’re pushing 17 or 70. Recent Stanford Center on Longevity Visiting Scholar Susan Nash looks at life experiences through an acerbic personal lens, while longtime writer and health reporter Tony Hicks takes the macro view to examine how society will change as the aging population grows ever larger. Check in every Friday to expand your vision of living the long game and send us your feedback, columns suggestions and ideas for future coverage to newsroom@baycitynews.com.
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